Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast
Current Space Weather Overview
Solar X-Ray & Solar Proton Flux. |
Planetary K-Index. |
3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast
Product: 3-Day Forecast
- Issued: 2024 Oct 05 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.
Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 05-Oct 07 2024 is 7.00 (NOAA Scale G3).
| Oct 05 | Oct 06 | Oct 07 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 00-03UT | 5.00 (G1) | 7.00 (G3) | 3.67 |
| 03-06UT | 5.00 (G1) | 6.67 (G3) | 3.00 |
| 06-09UT | 3.67 | 6.00 (G2) | 3.33 |
| 09-12UT | 4.00 | 5.00 (G1) | 4.67 (G1) |
| 12-15UT | 4.67 (G1) | 4.00 | 5.00 (G1) |
| 15-18UT | 6.33 (G2) | 4.67 (G1) | 3.33 |
| 18-21UT | 6.67 (G3) | 5.00 (G1) | 4.00 |
| 21-00UT | 7.00 (G3) | 5.33 (G1) | 4.67 (G1) |
Rationale: G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storming is likely on 05-06 Oct due to the aforementioned CME effects. A chance for isolated periods of G4 (Severe) storming is possible if the arrival of these CMEs coincide with one another, and are not separated by an appreciable amount of time as WSA-Enlil output suggests. However, confidence in this outcome is low. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely on 07 Oct with any glancing influence from the CME that left the Sun early on 04 Oct coupled with positive polarity CH HSS onset.
Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
| Oct 05 | Oct 06 | Oct 07 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S1 or greater | 35% | 35% | 35% |
Rationale: There is a chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux reaching the S1 (Minor) threshold on 05-07 Oct due to the enhanced flare potential from multiple, magnetically complex regions nearing the western limb of the solar disk.
Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Oct 04 2024 1103 UTC.
| Oct 05 | Oct 06 | Oct 07 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1-R2 | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| R3 or greater | 35% | 35% | 35% |
Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, with a chance for isolated R3 (Strong or greater) radio blackouts on 05-07 Oct.
Real Time Images of the Sun
SOHO EIT 171
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SOHO EIT 195
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SOHO EIT 284
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SOHO EIT 304
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SDO/HMI Continuum
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SDO/HMI Magnetogram
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LASCO C2
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LASCO C3
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The sun is constantly monitored for sun spots and coronal mass ejections. EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.
Real Time Solar Wind
Real-Time Solar Wind
Real-Time Solar Wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite. |
WSA-Enlil Solar Wind Prediction
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WSA-Enlil is a large-scale, physics-based prediction model of the heliosphere, used by the Space Weather Forecast Office to provide 1-4 day advance warning of solar wind structures and Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that cause geomagnetic storms. Solar disturbances have long been known to disrupt communications, wreak havoc with geomagnetic systems, and to pose dangers for satellite operations.
Solar Cycle
Sun Spot Number Progression
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Sun Spot Number Progression. |
F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
This plot shows the F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression. |
The Solar Cycle is observed by counting the frequency and placement of sunspots visible on the Sun. Solar minimum occurred in December, 2019, and the sun entered solar cycle 25 at that time.
Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES
Northern Hemi Auroral Map
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Southern Hemi Auroral Map
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Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.
Radio Communications Impact
D-Region Absorption
D-Region Absorption Prediction
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The D-Region Absorption Product addresses the operational impact of the solar X-ray flux and SEP events on HF radio communication. Long-range communications using high frequency (HF) radio waves (3 - 30 MHz) depend on reflection of the signals in the ionosphere. Radio waves are typically reflected near the peak of the F2 layer (~300 km altitude), but along the path to the F2 peak and back the radio wave signal suffers attenuation due to absorption by the intervening ionosphere. The D-Region Absorption Prediction model is used as guidance to understand the HF radio degradation and blackouts this can cause.
VHF and HF Band Conditions
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Credits:
Space Weather Images and Information (excluded from copyright) courtesy of:NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center
Mauna Loa Solar Observatory (HAO/NCAR)
SOHO (ESA & NASA).
Space Weather links:
3-Day Forecast of Solar and Geophysical Activity
Space Weather Overview
LASCO Coronagraph
Real-Time Solar Wind
Space Weather Advisory Outlooks
Space Weather Forecast Disussions
Space Weather Alerts, Watches and Warnings
Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO)
The Very Latest SOHO Images
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